Yankees vs. Mets: Who Has the Edge to Win Juan Soto Bidding War of 2024? (2024)

It's a story that feels similar to one that played out two years ago: a New York Yankees superstar having a walk year for the ages, often to the sound of "MVP!" chants.

Only this time, the Mets could actually steal said Yankees superstar in free agency.

This was not the case when Aaron Judge was mounting his assault on the American League home run record in 2022. Judge was a fit for the Mets on paper, but there was a line in the sand in the form of a "mutually respectful relationship" between Mets owner Steve Cohen and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner.

When it comes to Juan Soto, however, the gloves may come off.

The 25-year-old isn't chasing Roger Maris like Judge did in '22, but he's rocking a .972 OPS and 13 home runs after a two-homer day at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday. Hence the latest round of "MVP!" chants.

"It's unbelievable," Soto said afterward. "All I've got to do is turn around and they go crazy."

In addition to boosting his MVP chances, it's easy to believe that Soto is also upping his eventual price. But then again, not really. His price will be historically high no matter what.

Nobody Is Going to Get a Discount on Soto

It is, of course, still possible for the Yankees to simply extend Soto.

For his part, Steinbrenner says he "wouldn't be shocked if there was a conversation or two" with Soto and his agent, Scott Boras. For his, Soto's door is open.

Yet Steinbrenner is aware that Boras "doesn't tend to normally do deals in the middle of a season." And so is the rest of baseball.

As one AL executive put it to MLB.com's Mark Feinsand: "A 25-year-old Juan Soto has to hit free agency regardless of the agent. He's too good a player having too of a good year."

The number most often associated with Soto's next contract is $500 million, with Levi Weaver and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writing that such a figure may only be a "baseline."

All the same, the Yankees will obviously be in the bidding. The Mets are merely a speculative suitor for now, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post pegged them as the Yankees' "greatest challenge" in the upcoming Soto sweepstakes.

What's So Great About the Yankees Fit?

The best thing the Yankees have going for them is that it only takes a functional pair of eyes to see how well they and Soto go together.

To elevate a lineup is one thing, but what Soto is doing in 2024 is something else entirely. Judge may be the Yankees' captain, but it's Soto who's set the tone as the team has gone from an 82-win disappointment in 2023 to a 35-17 team with eyes on the World Series in 2024.

Meanwhile, the love that Yankees fans have shown Soto is very much mutual:

Granted, all of this is merely the vibe of the present. If Soto is going to commit to the Yankees for a long time beyond 2024, he'll presumably want assurances he'll be in a position to succeed on a continuing basis.

Well, Yankee Stadium isn't going anywhere. And it's been about as good a fit for the left-handed-hitting Soto as anyone could have anticipated. He has a 1.047 OPS with eight homers there.

The Yankees also have a sneaky-good farm system. B/R's Joel Reuter ranked it as the No. 7 system in MLB in April, with outfielders Jasson Domínguez (No. 12) and Spencer Jones (No. 36) leading a collection of five top-100 prospects.

Put these things together with the Yankees' abundant resources, and it doesn't take any complex math to calculate that more winning seasons are in their future. Of course, they're already sitting on 31 straight.

What's So Great About the Mets Fit?

There is, however, the question of Steinbrenner's willingness to leverage his resources.

He's said in the past his job is to "make sure we're financially responsible." And in the present, he's warning fans not to take this year's $306 million payroll for granted.

"I'm gonna be honest, payrolls at the levels we're at right now are simply not sustainable for us financially," Steinbrenner said this week, per Dan Martin of the New York Post. "It wouldn't be sustainable for the vast majority of ownership [groups], given the luxury tax we have to pay."

This is the heck of a thing for the owner of the second-most valuable sports franchise in the world to think, much less say. And the danger in doing so is sending an implicit message to Soto that a massive commitment to him might require cuts elsewhere.

Which brings us to Cohen.

It would be inaccurate to say he's never engaged in eyeroll-worthy payroll sustainability talk, but he mostly talks as big as he acts with payroll. He often seems completely unafraid of the luxury tax, and that's because he is.

The proof is in the pudding. Though the Mets cut payroll midway through 2023, they opened both that year and this year with higher payrolls than the Yankees.

This ought to appeal to Soto. So, too, should how [whispers] Citi Field might suit his swing better than Yankee Stadium.

He has a 1.165 OPS and 11 homers in 33 games at Citi Field, which has a shallower left field wall than Yankee Stadium. That could make a big difference to an all-fields hitter like Soto, who may have already lost a couple homers to Yankee Stadium's dimensions.

As they went 75-87 last year and are now only 21-28 in 2024, the Mets can't exactly compete with the Yankees in terms of immediate upside. Long-term upside, though, is another matter.

The Mets are also sitting on five top-100 prospects. And whereas Yankees general manager Cashman is a long-time exec who's recently been testing fans' patience, the Mets made an inspired hire when they tabbed David Stearns as their president of baseball operations.

He had previously built the Milwaukee Brewers into a playoff regular despite consistently having to work with bottom-10 payrolls. The general expectation within MLB is that he'll eventually do for the Mets what Andrew Friedman has done for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

In other words, gradually make them into player development machine with consistently big payrolls and high win totals.

Daring to Predict What Happens

The heart says Soto will end up remaining with the Yankees. It may be a new relationship, but it just feels so...well, so right.

But the head says the Mets.

Though both clubs can afford a $500 million deal for Soto, the Mets seem more able to afford it. Much has been made about the money the Yankees have coming off their books after this season, but here's some back-of-the-envelope math on these two teams' salary commitments from 2025 through 2030:

A little over $560 million of the Yankees' commitments is for Judge, Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton and Carlos Rodón. None of them is under 30. And unless you want to count the injured Cole, only Judge (who'll get another $40 million in 2031) is in his prime.

Apropos of Steinbrenner's payroll threats, this matters because it's hard to imagine the Yankees continuing to be a force in the American League East if they re-sign Soto and stop there. The farm system will help, but even Soto may not be able to bear the weight of the club's aging, expensive core of stars.

If Soto does eventually choose the Mets, nobody will have any right to call it a surprise. Or, if we're being honest, a case of him choosing less green grass.